According to a Reuters poll, 57 out of 99 economists think the Fed will cut interest rates one or two more times this year (56 out of 102 in the January survey). 67 out of 101 economists surveyed think the Fed will cut rates at least once by the end of June (nearly 60 percent in the January survey expected a rate cut by the end of March). Twenty-seven out of 46 economists said inflation risks from tariffs have risen recently, 17 said no change and 2 said a drop. (Jin Ten)
Morgan Stanley economists said they no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in March, and now expect a rate cut in June this year. The Trump administration is imposing tariffs faster than we expected, which could mean that the pullback in inflation will stall at higher levels, blocking the possibility of any near-term rate cuts. (Jin Ten)
Economists say the Federal Reserve could pause interest rate cuts for the foreseeable future if the U.S. ultimately imposes and maintains new tariffs. Click to view...
Most economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan's next rate hike to be in July, but 45% also said the BoJ could act as early as April. Click to view...
Economists believe that neither of Powell's two interest rate cut conditions will be met. Click to view...
A Reuters poll showed 25 economists said the Bank of Korea would cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent on Feb. 25.
Bank of America economists said that the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts in January is clearly a basic scenario. If the labor market stops gradually cooling, the rate-cutting cycle may end. (Jin Ten)
According to a survey of economists by foreign media, 90% of respondents believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18, and most expect the Fed to pause interest rate cuts in late January next year due to concerns about rising inflation risks. But the vast majority of economists (58 out of 99) predict that the Federal Reserve, which has cut interest rates by 75 basis points since September, will keep rates unchanged at its meeting on January 28-29 nex...
Economists expect the November non-farm payrolls report to show that the U.S. created 200,000 jobs in November, while adding just 12,000 jobs in October due to distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike. The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly to 4.2% in November, compared to 4.1% in October. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.9% in November, following a 4.0% increase in October. Powell said at an event this week that...
Reuters poll: 73 of 75 economists think the European Central Bank will cut deposit rates by 25 basis points to 3.00% in December; two expect a 50 basis point cut.
A new survey by foreign media shows that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates next month, but the 2025 rate cut will be smaller than they expected a month ago due to the policies proposed by President-elect Trump that could lead to higher inflation. Mr. Trump's planned policies, including higher tariffs and tax cuts, have almost halved market expectations for a rate cut by the end of 2025 to about 75 basis points, with markets pricing in less than a 60 pe...
While almost 90 per cent of economists still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by the end of March, a slim majority believe it will forgo another rise this year, according to a Reuters poll. The findings underline the challenges the BoJ faces in normalising policy at a time when most of the world's central banks are leaning towards lower rates and there is uncertainty over the preferences of the new political leadership for monetary policy.
According to a Reuters poll, 86 of 107 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% -4.50% in November and December, and by the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate to 3.25% -3.50%.
Many investors and some economists worry that the Fed has waited too long, putting the labor market and economic growth on thin ice and injecting volatility into the financial marekt. The latter was evident in the Treasury market on Friday when traders abruptly resumed bets on a 50 basis point rate cut. November's presidential election also puts the Fed's decision-making in an unpleasant position. Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump has warned that the Fed should not cut rates...
According to a Reuters poll, 92 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% -5.25% on September 18; nine of them expect a 50 basis point cut.