China International Capital Corporation: Lowering the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut forecast for this year to once

On April 9th, CICC Research stated that since the beginning of this year, the slowdown in inflation in the United States has slowed down, the labor market remains strong, consumer spending is stable, and the real estate and manufacturing industries have rebounded. At the same time, financial conditions remain loose, financing costs for enterprises decrease, and the impressive performance of the stock market supports the expansion of wealth in the household sector. From the perspective of economic fundamentals, it is believed that the urgency and necessity of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have decreased. This year, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to follow its guidance of reducing interest rates three times. Therefore, our forecast for the number of rate cuts will be reduced to one, and the timing of rate cuts may be postponed to the fourth quarter. But this year is an election year, and it is difficult to predict non economic disturbances. The predicted risk is that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates earlier due to these factors. But history has shown that doing so can easily trigger "secondary inflation", adding complexity to subsequent economic and policy trends.