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美银:当前市场对美联储降息50个基点的反应似乎是在遵循“软降息”或“恐慌式降息”的剧本

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2024-09-22 02:56:32
美银知名策略师Hartnett指出,当前市场对美联储降息50个基点的反应似乎是在遵循“软降息”或“恐慌式降息”的剧本。美股和信贷市场正在消化到2025年底美联储降息250基点以及标普500指数成分股盈利增长18%的预期,“风险并没有好到哪里去,因此投资者被迫追逐”涨势,“泡沫风险”正在卷土重来。对于这种狂欢式上涨的原因,Hartnett在最新报告中解释说,当没有出现恐慌时(至少现在还没有),华尔街最喜欢“恐慌性降息”。同时,美联储希望降息50个基点,这样实际利率就可以从本世纪最高水平下降,防止已处在衰退中的小企业部门裁员。
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