Small motorcycle: lowering Q4 oil price expectations, OPEC + production will remain unchanged in the coming year

OPEC + will maintain current production levels for at least the next year as the window of opportunity to phase out production cuts closes, JPMorgan Chase said. In this scenario, Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $75/bbl in 2025, before falling to a low of $60/bbl by the end of the year. A price of $60/bbl is not a good price for both producing and consuming countries, and if OPEC + insists on market management, it will need to cut production by another 1 million barrels/day. Given the poor performance of oil prices in August, our oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 has been lowered from $85/bbl to $80/bbl, but the 2025 forecast remains unchanged.