Powell's confidence in the sustained decline in inflation is still insufficient

On April 4th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that policymakers will wait for clearer signs of a decline in inflation before considering interest rate cuts. Powell stated that although recent inflation data exceeded expectations, it did not "substantially change" the overall situation. He reiterated his view that he expects to start lowering interest rates "at some point this year". Powell said: "With regard to inflation, we are still not sure whether the recent data is just a temporary fluctuation. Until we are more confident that inflation is continuing to decline in the direction of 2%, we do not think it is appropriate to cut interest rates." After Powell's speech, treasury bond bond yields continued to rise, and the S&P 500 index also rose. According to the pricing in the futures market, investors hold roughly equal expectations for the possibility of the first interest rate cut in June and believe that there may not be three interest rate cuts this year.