Iron ore: bearish release, optimistic about the opportunity for bottom rebound

Gold Ten Futures July 2nd news, the industry, the supply side of the mainstream mine shipping speed, domestic imports increased significantly, superimposed domestic minerals can be released in an orderly manner, the supply is abundant; demand side from the perspective of molten iron and crude steel, the downward space is limited, but from the end point of view, real estate drag is still continuing, the end point response is flat, fortunately exports are high, and external demand is still supported; although the inventory side of the port inventory has been removed, but the reality of high supply growth and weakness has led to a high inventory state or will continue; industry-driven neutral. Overall, the focus of current disk trading is still on the game between the weak reality and strong macro guidance, while marginal demand changes will play an accelerating role; follow-up, this round of pullback has approached the $100 position, unless domestic demand collapses sharply or the macro has not improved, otherwise there is limited room for continued downside. At the same time, the drop in the arrival of scrap steel has led to a prominent price/performance ratio of molten iron. From a time and space perspective, it is recommended to adjust the position near the end of the market. After the pullback, it is advisable to do more on the dip.