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What information will be released at the second-quarter regular meeting of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee? Expert: The third-quarter interest rate cut window is expected to resume

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2024-06-28 21:53:08
On June 28th, the team of Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that in terms of monetary policy orientation, the specific formulation of this regular meeting is exactly the same as that of the previous quarter, which means that the monetary policy will continue to exert force in the direction of stabilizing growth. After the policy observation period since February, the third-quarter interest rate reduction and reserve ratio reduction window is expected to open again. It is worth noting that the central bank recently stated that "in the future, we can consider explicitly using a short-term operating interest rate of the central bank as the main policy interest rate. At present, the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate has basically assumed this function. The interest rate of other term monetary policy tools can dilute the color of the policy interest rate." Wang Qing's team believes that < b > this means that if the color of MLF policy interest rate fades, it is not ruled out that the MLF operating interest rate will not be fixed in the third quarter, and the central bank will directly guide the LPR quotation to be reduced significantly while lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate. For the sake of maintaining the stability of bank operations, in the second half of the year, the regulators may further play the role of the deposit interest rate market-oriented adjustment mechanism to guide the deposit interest rate to be reduced significantly.