Consolidation semi-annual report: The geopolitical situation is confusing, and the upward momentum still persists

Gold Ten Futures, June 28, from the current performance of the container shipping market and the driving force of all parties, there may still be an upward drive in the second half of the year. From the perspective of the fundamental structure, the impact of new ships entering the water that began to increase in the second quarter of this year was absorbed by the loss of capacity caused by detours, which switched the original oversupply environment to a tight balance pattern, but the marginal impact of this offset in the second half of the year may be weakened. On the demand side, it is currently showing a gradual recovery from the perspective of foreign trade and European economic data. However, in the first half of the year, due to the pre-demand, replenishment may also release part of the demand in the peak season in the third quarter ahead of schedule. Pay attention to the changes in the growth rate of foreign demand in August. Some low-value demand suppressed by high freight prices may be released in the process of freight rate adjustment. Overall, < b > it is expected that the situation of detour structure and tight spot will not be significantly reversed in the second half of the year, and the container shipping market as a whole is still dominated by the idea of bargain-hunting . On contracts of different durations, 08 has peak season support, 12 contracts are the annual negotiation time window, and the shipping company's price base is stronger. 10 contract drivers may be relatively weak. You can also pay attention to the anti-set opportunities when the price difference space appears.