Institutions: Be vigilant that there is a certain risk of price decline in black as a whole in May

Golden Ten Futures on April 30, Zijin Tianfeng Futures analysis pointed out that the black basically maintained a slight weak shock before the festival. Fundamentally, the supply-side molten iron is in the process of resumption of production, but the progress of resumption of production is relatively slow. There are still blast furnaces that plan to resume production in May, molten iron continues to rise, and the raw material replenishment warehouse before May Day brings positive feedback support for finished materials. The profit of finished materials has been repaired, the molten iron continues to rise, and the output of finished materials continues to increase in the future. The plate destocking has slowed down. The hot-rolled social inventory in South China, East China and other regions remains high and destocking is slow. It is expected that the goods will rebound after May Day, and the social inventory will still be under certain pressure. Although the thread is still showing a good trend of destocking, the thread output of the subsequent long and short process steel mills has a recovery trend. The short process steel mills give a profit of 70 yuan/ton of grain electricity. The increase in production of electric furnaces is imminent. There is a trend of winding to screw in North China. The rebound in building materials production continues to test the demand capacity of the building materials end. Therefore, at present, the finished materials end currently focuses on the recovery rate and sustainability of the demand end. After the festival, the focus is on observing the destocking of building materials. If the finished materials continue to destocking, the inventory level is at a historically low level, and it is difficult to form a smooth and sharp market decline. If the demand for finished materials peaks in stages, the rebound in the supply end continues to cause the accumulation of finished materials. The fundamentals of raw materials continue to be weak. Be