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纽约联储调查:美股上涨的可能性降至2022年6月以来的最低水平

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2025-04-14 15:40:46

纽约联储最新调查揭示消费者通胀预期分化:长期信心犹存但短期压力加剧



纽约联储4月消费者预期调查报告显示,多数受访者仍对长期通胀受控保持信心,这一结论与密歇根大学同期发布的消费者情绪调查形成鲜明对比。值得注意的是,密歇根大学数据显示,4月消费者对五年后通胀水平的预期已攀升至1991年6月以来的历史峰值,突显市场预期出现显著分歧。



调查还发现三个关键预警信号:

- 信贷环境持续收紧:居民获取贷款难度达到近年高位

- 家庭财务恶化:3月对自身财务状况持悲观态度人群比例环比上升

- 股市预期转冷:认为美股将上涨的消费者占比骤降至2022年6月以来最低水平



对投资者的影响分析:

1. 货币政策分歧风险:矛盾的通胀预期可能加大美联储政策制定难度

2. 消费板块承压:信贷紧缩与财务恶化将直接影响可选消费品需求

3. 市场波动加剧:投资者情绪与基本面数据的背离可能引发更大价格波动

4. 防御性配置需求:建议关注必需消费品、医疗保健等抗周期板块

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