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特朗普关税对亚洲经济增长的拖累比2018-19年更大

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2025-04-03 01:36:46

摩根士丹利警告:特朗普对亚洲加征对等关税或引发更严重经济冲击



4月3日 - 摩根士丹利首席经济学家团队发布重磅分析报告指出,若特朗普政府实施对亚洲国家的对等关税政策,其对全球经济增长的抑制作用可能远超2018-19年贸易战时期。报告特别强调,由于亚洲地区绝大多数国家长期保持对美贸易顺差,该区域将成为本轮关税冲击的"重灾区"。



核心风险预警:

• 贸易依存度越高的经济体受冲击越显著

• 政策不确定性将重创企业投资信心

• 区域供应链面临新一轮重构压力



报告深入分析称:"当前的关键变量在于相关国家能否通过外交谈判达成关税减免协议。我们观察到,政策不确定性的急剧上升已开始抑制企业资本支出意愿,这种传导效应将通过贸易渠道放大。"



对投资者的深远影响:

1. 亚洲出口型企业估值可能面临重估

2. 跨国企业需重新评估区域供应链布局

3. 外汇市场波动率或将显著提升

4. 避险资产可能获得新一轮配置需求

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