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花旗策略师:美股可能已经触及短期峰值

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2025-02-20 10:00:35
花旗集团策略师表示,由于特朗普政策提议所带来的风险,今年美股目前4.5%的涨幅可能已经是短期最好的结果了。由Scott Chronert领导的团队表示,投资者押注特朗普“美国优先”政策将产生“有利于企业”的影响,“我们对此并不反对,但同时也认为,相关政策对基本面的破坏可能尚未被定价。我们对全年的看法没有重大变化,但近中期的下行风险略有增加。”美股2025年的表现落后于全球股市,原因是市场担心特朗普的保护主义和拟议的进口关税可能会刺激通胀。投资者还对科技巨头的高估值提出质疑,七巨头中的四家公司(苹果、特斯拉、Alphabet和微软)目前都处于下跌。与2023年末的峰值相比,七巨头对盈利增长的贡献也有所放缓。Chronert说,现在的动力来自于标普500指数的其他部分,有涨势扩大到大型科技股之外的迹象,但迄今为止仅限于其他大型股。
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