CITIC Securities: Impact and Calculation of M1 Statistical Caliber Revision After Its Implementation

On December 3rd, CITIC Securities Research Report said that as of 24M10, < b > the balance of M1 under the original rules was 63.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.10% ; according to our calculations, if residents' current deposits and third-party payment institutions' customer provisions are included, < b > 24M10 "adjusted M1 balance" is 105 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.3% ; "Adjusted M1 growth rate" The absolute value is always higher than the M1 growth rate under the original rules, and the long-term fluctuation is also more stable. At the same time, the scissors difference between M2 and its growth rate has also decreased from 13.60% to 9.83% in 24M10; although the "adjusted M1" indicator is better than the original M1 in absolute value, we emphasize that its It still cannot conceal the overall weak state of the current economic credit environment. Looking at the review, the "adjusted M1 growth rate" has continued to decline this year and has fallen back to a negative range. At the same time, the M2 and its scissors are still at a high level. In addition, the adjusted M1 indicator still has a good guiding effect on indicators such as PPI and industrial finished goods inventories in economic forecasts.