Economist: If Trump imposes tariffs, the dollar could rise

Vasileios Gkionakis, an economist at Aviva Investors, said in a note that the dollar could rise further if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump proposes new trade tariffs. He said the dollar's recent appreciation has been largely driven by economic fundamentals, including strong U.S. economic data and favorable interest rate spreads. The prospect of tariffs is likely to contribute much less to the dollar's rise. That suggests there is room for further dollar strength if these policies are implemented. Import tariffs could push up inflation and widen the spread between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Tariffs could also weaken market sentiment and weaken global economic growth expectations, thereby boosting the dollar's safe-haven appeal. The extent of dollar appreciation will depend on the scope, size and timing of tariffs.