Coking coal fundamentals are weak, and short-selling in the band can be tried in the near future
2024-11-13 23:51:27
Gold Ten Futures, November 13th, the policy has entered a vacuum period, and the weight of fundamental influence has increased. Short-term molten iron production has peaked, and the demand for double coke consumption has declined; downstream raw material inventory is acceptable, and the arrival situation is controlled to increase; after the policy is implemented, speculative demand has also declined; the demand side is not friendly in the near future. Domestic coal mine production has reached a new high, and raw coal and clean coal inventories have increased more; Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and port inventories are also high; maritime coal imports remain high, and port inventories are high; coke production is profitable, and the output decline is slow, but the inventory is acceptable; the supply side is excessive, and the pressure is high. Short-term double coke is weak, and the pressure above is significant. Considering that the fundamentals of coking coal are weaker, you can try to short the band in the near future. 01 Pay attention to In the medium term, we will pay attention to whether there are new changes in macro policy expectations in early December, and whether the downstream will start winter replenishment. At that time, we will pay attention to the support of 1150-1200 yuan/ton for coking coal 05 contracts and 1800-1850 yuan/ton for coking coal 01 contracts.