On January 13, U.S. interest rate futures no longer fully priced in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates even once this year, after Friday's strong monthly employment data underscored the resilience of the U.S. economy. Interest rate futures showed that traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by only 24.26 basis points by December this year, compared with about 43 basis points before the employment data was released. At present, traders are increasingly ...
The Fed will cut interest rates by another 67 basis points in 2025.
According to market news, UBS strategists believe that there is a clear risk that U.S. interest rates will eventually fall more than the market is currently pricing in, which could inflate the stock market bubble. The UBS team led by Andrew Garthwaite said that since 1981, the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point policy easing cycle has been accompanied by a recession, but this time they see it as a sign of Fed aggression rather than a recession. Gar...
U.S. interest rate futures imply that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 76 basis points by the end of 2024; it is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 196 basis points by October 2025.
Traders in the US interest rate options market are still betting on the Federal Reserve making at least one mega-rate cut this year, although it may not happen before the November 5 presidential election. With next week's FOMC meeting on interest rates, at first glance the Fed swap contracts reflect expectations for a 25 basis point cut, and the probability of a larger cut is slim. But a closer look is a different story.
On September 6th, US interest rate futures rose after the speech of Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and the current price is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
U.S. interest rate futures rose after Federal Reserve Governor Paul Waller's speech, pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
1. The US interest rate outlook and strong export growth are awesome, and Asian bonds are widely favored by foreign investors. 2. Central Bank: The increase in social financing scale in the first seven months of 2024 is 18.87 trillion yuan, 3.22 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. 3. Media in charge of the central bank: Recently, some institutions in the bond market have significantly deviated from the market level. 4. Securities Times Comment: Bond market investment ha...
Federal Reserve Goolsby: US interest rates are currently restrictive.
Traders in the US interest rate options market are taking an emerging bet on the direction of the Fed's interest rates: up to 300 basis points of interest rate cuts over the next nine months (12 cuts at the regular 25BP range). Over the past three trading days, positions in the options market related to the guaranteed overnight funding rate show that if the Fed cuts rates to a low of 2.25% in Quarter 1, 2025,...