News list for "Probability"
Polymarket predicts a 60% probability that "Bitcoin will hit an all-time high this month", and is now reporting 59%.
Polymarket forecasts that the major airdrop probabilities that may be launched in Q1 this year are as follows: Berachain: 89%; Linea: 84%; Jumpers: 38%; pump.fun: 32%; Aleo: 30%; Farcaster: 21%. On-chain data shows that since its launch, the Berachain network has processed more than 533 million transactions. Of these, 57.14 million transactions took place in the last 14 days. Additionally, the number of active Berachain addresses has increased from 945,000 on December 15 to nearly 3 million curr...
According to HODL15 Capital, more than 20 companies are likely to be included in the Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Company ETF, and 30% are bitcoin mining companies. Previously, it was reported that Bitwise has applied to the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF (Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF). The fund aims to invest in the stocks of companies that adopt the Bitcoin standard, with at least 1,000 BTC in the company's funds.
On December 3rd, after Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed his preference for supporting interest rate cuts in December, U.S. interest rate futures slightly increased the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this month to 70%.
Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. Unemployment remains low, coupled with the decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates two to three times next year, and may suspend interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a small probability scenario, too much tariff and immigration policy may cause US stocks to fall and the US economy to decline significantly, so there ...
The US data yesterday was not much of a surprise. A slight increase in the probability of interest rate cuts in December pleased investors. The dollar weakened widely, and the euro rebounded. However, the hidden dangers of the French political situation may limit the room for growth. The yen is waiting for the Tokyo CPI... > >
Market news: Traders cut the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December to about 50%.
Traders downgraded their expectations for the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December to around 50%.
On November 15th, according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 58.7%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 29%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 53.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 17.6%. Powell made hawki...
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in December fell to 67.3%, compared to 72.2% before Powell's speech.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25BP in December fell to 67.3%, compared to 72.2% before Powell's speech.
On November 8th, according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged by December is 29%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 71%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 16.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 53%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 30.4%.
According to the chain analyst Ember monitoring, as the probability of Trump's victory increases, the largest address bet on Trump on Polymarket has now risen by $5.45 million, and the largest address bet on Harris has fallen by $2.70 million. Betting on Trump's victory, the largest address 0xd23... f29 bought $18.02 million Trump won, and the current float is 5.45 million dollars (+ 30%); Bet Harris wins the largest address 0x9ad... 883 bought $5.02 million Harris wins, currently floating loss ...
According to prediction market Polymarket data, the current probability of Trump winning the election has dropped to 59.4% (it rose to 63% earlier today), and the current probability of Harris winning the election has risen to 40.7%.
According to Polymarket data, the current probability of Trump winning has rebounded to 61.5%, while Harris' probability of winning has dropped to 38.4%.
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