Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said the Bank of England needed to be more convinced that inflation was on a downward trend before it could cut interest rates more quickly. The Bank of England's 25 basis point cut on Thursday did not surprise anyone, but Governor Bailey was cautious amid geopolitical headwinds, particularly from the US. Neiss said the UK now faced more potential inflationary shocks, "starting with the UK budget, which is more expansionary and infl...
Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income, said that the current federal funds rate of 5.3% appears relatively high compared to the current consumer price inflation rate of less than 3%. Even if the rate is cut by 100 basis points, the Federal Reserve's policy is still tighter. Policy is calibrated according to significantly higher inflation and significantly lower unemployment, but these conditions have changed.
Mr. Bocelli, PGIM's chief US economist, said the US's focus had shifted from inflation to labour market easing because of a cyclical hiring slowdown over the past few months, allowing the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September. The Fed is expected to announce a September cut at its meeting tonight. Another cut is likely at the December meeting, and the possibility of a November cut cannot be ignored. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by about 150 basis points by the end of 2025...