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Fitch said it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in 2026.
Fitch says one way to try to see through US employment volatility is to add the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimate of the impact of the strike (44,000) to October's employment growth data, and then take a three-month moving average, which is 119,000, a slowdown from the monthly average of 207,000 in the first half of the year, but far from a sharp decline. Given broader evidence of continued consumer power, the Fed is unlikely to give high priority to the overall 12,000 figure.
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its November and December meetings, Fitch said, and the Fed's rate cuts are still likely to remain modest overall in this easing cycle. The US job market is not expected to deteriorate significantly, and despite the Fed's rate cuts, the US federal funds target rate (cap) is expected to fall to 4.5% by the end of this year, 3.5% by the end of 2025, and to neutral 3.0% by June 2026.
Fitch: Confirmed the US rating of AA + with a stable outlook.
Fitch: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in September.
Fitch Ratings said it confirmed the US rating as AA + with a stable outlook. The US rating is supported by structural strengths and constrained by deficits, interest burden and debt. The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first rate cut in September. Despite differences in economic objectives between US Vice President Harris and former US President Trump, it remains confident that the underlying fiscal position of the US will remain largely unchanged. The continued rise in the US public deb...
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