On September 23rd, according to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 49.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.0%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 25.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%; the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.4%. Last week's potential successor to the Federal Reserve chairp...
Gold Ten Futures Special Guantong Futures Comments: The current market's views on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 50bp are full of contradictions and differences, and there is no clear direction yet. This is also because after a major macro event, the market has different views on the disturbance of asset prices and the impact of the real economy. On the surface, overseas markets are reacting positively to this matter, while domestic markets are more interpreting in the direction of "...
With the Federal Reserve's September 2024 interest rate meeting to cut interest rates by 50bp resolution passed, mainstream financial marekt feedback is mixed: 1. Bank stocks rose across the board; 2. The two-year US Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points in the short term, and is now reported at 3.598%; S & P 500 futures rose 0.85%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.3%, and Dow futures rose 0.51%. 4. Spot gold returned to $2,560/ounce, up 0.03% in the day; 5. Crypto market within 12 hours, multiple orders l...
With the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50bp at its September 2024 meeting, opinions were divided, but most of the feedback was positive. 1. Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell: will choose to accelerate or slow the pace of interest rate cuts based on actual market conditions. 2. Trump: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut shows that the US "economy is very bad"; 3. Vice President Harris: Good news for Americans who are under pressure from high prices. 4. Nationwide Chief ...
The Guosheng Macro team said that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, slightly exceeding market expectations, but Powell's speech was hawkish, saying that this rate cut is not the norm. The dot plot shows another 50bp drop within the year, and the market expects another 75bp drop within the year. Combined with historical laws and asset performance after this meeting, this sharp interest rate cut should strengthen the market's concerns about the US economic recession; tend to think th...
In response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 50bp, CICC issued a comment saying that the interest rate cut of 50bp was an unconventional start and partially exceeded market expectations. The 50bp cut was in line with expectations for CME interest rate futures, but it exceeded the forecasts of many Wall Street investment banks and was an "unconventional" start. Historically, interest rate cuts starting at 50bp have only occurred in times of economic or market emergency, such as the t...
On September 19, the Federal Reserve sharply cut interest rates by 50 basis points. US stocks closed down collectively on Wednesday. The Dow closed down about 102 points or 0.25%, the S & P 500 index fell 0.29%, and the Nasdaq index fell 0.31%. Intel (INTC. O) fell 3.26%, Trump Media Technology Group (DJT. O) fell 3.22%. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.86%, NIO (NIO. N) fell 7.03%, XPeng Motors (XPEV. N) fell 4.49%, and Dingdong Maicai (DDL. N) fell 4.39%.
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 BP for the first time, spot gold continued to rise, reaching a record high of $2,600 per ounce.