On September 26th, a number of Federal Reserve officials including Powell, Collins, Kugler, Bowman, Williams, Barr and Cook will deliver speeches tonight. Previously, the Federal Reserve started the interest rate cut cycle with 50BP, and the market continued to price the remaining interest rate cuts this year. As the first week after the Federal Reserve meeting, the remarks of officials tonight may clear up the market. Investors are advised to pay attention to the relevant risks when the market ...
On September 19, the median of the Federal Reserve dot plot shows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024. After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, there are still 50 basis points expected to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another 100 basis points in 2025, the same as the rate cut expected in the dot plot in June.
Citi traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will make three 50 basis point rate cuts this year, a bet that has beaten the market and the bank's economists' expectations. Citi's short-term rates trading arm said the Fed will aggressively ease policy if it sees weakness in the labour market. Currently, swap transactions suggest a 50 basis point cut this month is about a one-in-three chance. Akshay Singal, global head of short-term rates trading at Citi, said: "...
Some analysts said that after the latest economic data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates several times this year, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. Treasury yields were little changed, and the market is on track for its longest consecutive rise since 2021. The Fed's favored measure of potential U.S. inflation, PCE, rose modestly in July, and household spending remained solid. Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell said last week that the time has...
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates unchanged today, in a statement likely to reiterate that the committee "does not rule out anything". Reserve Bank of Australia President Block will continue to use the same text he used in this year's press conference. That said, the Reserve Bank of Australia remains vigilant about potential upside inflation risks, while recognizing weak GDP growth and an uncertain outlook. (Golden Ten)
UBS now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, up from a previous forecast of 50 basis points. Unless the August jobs report is strong, UBS believes the Federal Reserve will begin an easing cycle with a 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, UBS said in its report. "Our baseline judgment remains that the U.S. economy will avoid recession and growth will remain close to its 2% trend. With interest rates at a 23-year high, the Fed has enough fle...
Traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 70 basis points this year, up from 64 basis points earlier.
Jim Smigiel, chief investment officer at SEI, said expectations that the Fed would cut rates three times this year appeared too high. "We don't expect to see that happen," he said in a note. A 25 basis point cut in September appeared likely, he said, while further cuts in December "remain on the table".
The current market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates nearly twice this year may be overblown.