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分析:比特币今年减半后走势与2020年类似,为潜在上涨奠定基础

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2024-09-23 13:15:49
Rekt Capital 比较了比特币 2020 年和 2024 年减半后的时期,发现两者存在高度相似之处。两次减半事件发生后,比特币都进入了持续约 161 天的再积累阶段。2020 年,随着比特币突破其反复测试的阻力位,这一时期以抛物线反弹告终。
这两个时期的支撑位和阻力位都显示出持续的测试和再测试,为可能的上升势头奠定了基础。虽然历史模式表明可能出现重大变动,但市场状况(如交易量)的差异突显出结果可能不尽相同。
这两个时期的显著区别在于成交量(图表中使用数据来自 Bitstamp)。2020 年,Bitstamp 在减半事件后的 161 天内的比特币成交量为 118.3 万,而在 2024 年成交量为 313081。这种差异表明市场参与度发生了变化,这可能会影响到任何潜在突破的性质。
自今年减半以来,所有交易所成交量为 250 万,而在 2020 年减半后的 161 天内,成交量为 400 万。(CryptoSlate)
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