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芝商所数据显示交易员过去几小时在降息50基点和25基点之间均衡押注

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2024-09-18 16:32:08
随着美联储利率决策的临近,结果显得更加具有不确定性。根据芝商所(CME)的数据,在过去的几个小时内,交易员们在降息 50 个基点(目前概率约为 55%)和降息 25 个基点(可能性为 45%)之间更加均衡地押注。周三早些时候,降息 50 个基点还是以 2:1 的概率优势被看好,但由于强劲的经济数据,更为保守的降息 25 个基点的选项获得了更多的支持。随着大幅降息的可能性降低,美债收益率正在上升。两年期美债的收益率目前报 3.657%,而周二收盘时为 3.59%。
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