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8月非农模棱两可,9月降息后政策走向尚待观察

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2024-09-08 06:57:21
8月非农就业数据让鹰派和鸽派都有所关注,使得美联储在今年秋季的政策走向充满了不确定性。9月降息25个基点几乎已成定局,但之后的情况则变得更为复杂。模棱两可的非农报告不会改变美联储在9月会议上开始降息的倾向。但其并没有为接下来会发生什么提供太多明确的信息——既没有表明经济软着陆已经板上钉钉,也没有表明就业市场的迅速恶化需要美联储采取积极的应对措施。在11月会议召开之前,还将有两份就业报告公布。6月点阵图预测2024年仅降息一次,但9月点阵图可能显示更多降息,不过未必符合市场预期。10月份的就业、通胀和经济增长数据将是决定下一步行动的关键。
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