Analysis: Markets overreacted to Waller's speech, there is still no clear evidence to support a 50 basis point rate cut

Analyst Cameron Crise said the much-anticipated Waller speech triggered market volatility, with one notable remark being that he would support strong action/early rate cuts if necessary. But the market ignored the role "what if" played in the sentence. Waller devoted a considerable amount of his speech to explaining why he was fairly optimistic about the prospects for continued economic expansion, why the Sam rule was only descriptive rather than predictive, and how shocks of the kind that have not materialized so far usually trigger recessions. He actually hinted at the need to see more data to determine the final easing magnitude and pace, so from his perspective, policymakers clearly haven't decided how aggressive they really are. Combine these remarks with Williams' earlier remarks, and there is still no convincing evidence that the FOMC will cut rates by 50 basis points. It is also worth noting that Waller said that as the Fed executes "a series of rate cuts," "I believe there is enough room to lower the policy rate and still maintain some degree of restraint to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the 2% objective," which is reflected in the employment data. To some extent, the initial market reaction looks a little overdone.