Interest rate options traders increase bets on Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points this month

Interest rate options traders have upped their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points this month, reflecting growing speculation that policymakers will act aggressively to prevent the economy from getting into trouble. Swap contracts now give the Fed about a one-in-three chance of cutting rates by 50 basis points this month.
Options tied to the guaranteed overnight funding rate (SOFR) show a sharp spike in unpositioned squaring contracts, or the number of positions held by traders, on some of the bullish contracts that expire on Sept. 13, the first five days of the FOMC's rate statement. If this Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that the job market and inflation are cooling, it will be enough to justify the Federal Reserve easing policy more quickly, then those positions will pay off.