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分析:日元走强或致全球风险资产的负反馈循环,加密交易员需保持谨慎

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2024-08-19 09:12:39
8月19日消息,日元兑美元汇率自上周四以来已上涨 2.4%,达到 145 日元兑 1 美元,显示出对避险货币的偏好。类似的日元强势在 8 月初曾引发套利交易解除,导致包括比特币在内的风险资产大幅波动。比特币价格在 8 月 5 日前八天从约 7 万美元跌至 5 万美元,随后随美元兑日元反弹回升至 6 万美元。著名交易员 Simon Ree 和高盛加密交易主管 Andrei Kazantsev 都指出,日元的强势可能会导致全球风险资产的负面反馈循环。根据 ING 的分析,日元的反弹可能会改变市场行为,增加在日元走弱时买入的意愿,从而加大日元走强的风险。
未来几周,随着美联储 9 月中旬的利率决策会议临近,套利交易解除可能会继续。Easterly EAB 风险解决方案的全球宏观策略师 Arnim Holzer 表示,如果美联储降息 50 个基点,市场可能会先涨后跌,因为对经济的担忧和日元的强势将重新引发套利交易解除。
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