Rising more than 700 basis points RMB continues to "surge"

On August 5th, the market exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar continued to rise sharply at the opening of this morning. Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, analyzed that one of the reasons for the recent surge in the RMB exchange rate is the weakening of the US dollar index. Due to the increasing downward pressure on the US economy and the certainty of the decline in inflation, the Federal Reserve's latest statement has changed from "eagle" to "dove", and the market has strengthened its expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In addition, the linkage between the RMB and the Japanese yen is also one of the factors. Since the beginning of this year, the logic of the trend of the RMB and the Japanese yen has been similar to a certain extent, and both have a large interest rate spread with the US dollar. The recent strengthening Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that although the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is still there, the domestic demand is expected to be boosted to a certain extent under the implementation of policies such as interest rate cuts and fiscal acceleration in July, and the external demand will continue to pick up with greater certainty. Superimposed with more abundant exchange rate management tools, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Most of the time, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will fluctuate in both directions within the range of 7.1 yuan to 7.3 yuan.