The rapeseed meal 2409 daily line has achieved a V-shaped reversal, and foreign capital and speculative shorts still need to reduce their positions and leave the market

Gold Ten Futures Special New Lake Futures Comments: Since Tuesday, domestic vegetable meal 2409 positions have risen sharply. This morning, the intraday position was once increased by 180,000 hands, an increase of more than 5%. Early CBOT soybeans fell sharply, driving domestic soybean meal and vegetable meal fell sharply. Short-term fundamentals have not changed significantly, and spot futures are slightly discounted, but under the intense game of long and short funds, < b > vegetable meal 2409 daily line has achieved a V-shaped reversal . < br > 1. Position Look, since June, M2409 positions have not gradually declined as before, but continue to rise. Today's intraday highest position is nearly 1.30 million hands, corresponding to 13 million tons of spot. Among them, the two foreign seats accounted for 22% of the total positions of the top 20 shorts, < b > the concentration of short positions is relatively high . < br > 2. From a fundamental perspective, according to Mysteel statistics, as of this Monday, China imported 189,000 tons of granular meal inventory in East China, and 39,500 tons of pressed meal inventory in coastal oil plants. According to industry ship buying statistics, it is expected that the monthly import volume of rapeseed on the shipping schedule in June-August is 50-600,000 tons. From January to May, the average monthly import volume of domestic rapeseed meal is 20-300,000 tons. Therefore, corresponding to the inventory and potential supply of domestic rapeseed meal, < b > the current M2409 position is abnormally high, and the subsequent deliverables are very limited . < br > 3. In the short and medium term, foreign capital and speculative shorts still need to reduce their positions and leave the market. Recently, the long and short capital game is intense, the disk fluctuates violently, and the risk of participation is very high. Beware of the bearish impact of the CBOT soybean disk again.