Analysts: US PCE data expected to bring good news for the Federal Reserve

Some analysts have said they expect core PCE inflation in May to record its slowest pace of increase so far this year, which is good news for policymakers. Falling gasoline prices and generally falling commodity inflation will restrain economic growth. But this may only provide a temporary respite for the Federal Reserve, as spending categories with sticky inflation continue to put upward pressure on inflation measures, with an adverse base effect expected in the second half of the year. Analysts said their estimate is that the core PCE monthly rate will slow to 0.10% in May, the lowest level this year. The core PCE annual rate should fall to 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021. In addition, the overall monthly rate of PCE will barely approach 0.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate will reach 2.6%.