Crude oil semi-annual report: What factors will dominate oil prices in the second half of the year? How should we proceed?
2024-06-26 20:57:00
Gold Ten Futures, June 26th news, looking forward to the second half of the year, the main contradiction of crude oil is dominated by macro and fundamentals. < br > 1. At the macro level, global economic growth has slowed down, but the economic resilience of major economies still exists. The Sino-US economic cycle is expected to resonate upward, and interest rate cuts are expected to resume in the second half of the year. < b > Macro bullish crude oil . < br > 2. Fundamentally, the supply side continued to cut production in the third quarter, and there may be relaxation in the fourth quarter. The demand side is strong on the outside and weak on the inside. The demand is expected to support during the peak season in the United States. Domestic demand confidence and expectations still need to be improved. The overall supply and demand pattern in the second half of the year is tight. At the same time Geopolitical aspects will be gradually diluted as risk factors. The current level of geopolitical premium in oil prices is neutral, but the possibility of geopolitical situation intensification cannot be ignored. < br > 4. Overall, the oil market is bullish in the second half of the year. Strategically, it is recommended to deploy multiple orders on dips. It is expected that the Brent price operating range in the second half of the year will be 80-100, the WTI price operating range will be 75-95, and the SC price operating range will be 560-700.