JP Morgan Chase: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at every meeting by January next year, and Treasury prices are expected to continue to rise

Treasury prices are set to continue rising, according to JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at every FOMC monetary policy meeting until January 2026. The top of the target range for the federal funds rate, or policy rate, is expected to slide to 3.0 per cent early next year. JPMorgan economists expect real GDP to shrink as a result of Mr. Trump's tariffs. Full-year real GDP growth is expected to be -0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent previously. The two-year Treasury yield is expected to fall to 2.7 per cent and the 10-year yield to 3.65 per cent at the end of 2025, down from 3.65 per cent and 4.15 per cent respectively.