观点：没有国家能在全球贸易战中获胜，比特币价格将因此飙升
2025-04-05 17:29:19
特朗普贸易政策或引发全球经济动荡 比特币将成最大赢家？Bitwise分析师深度解读
根据Bitwise首席投资分析师Jeff Park的最新研究报告，美国总统特朗普激进的贸易政策可能成为引发全球宏观经济动荡的导火索，并导致短期金融市场危机。这份引发行业热议的分析报告指出，这种经济动荡最终可能推动比特币作为数字黄金的价值储存属性获得更广泛的市场认可。
贸易战如何助推比特币需求？三大关键机制解析
Park在报告中详细阐述了贸易政策影响比特币价格的传导机制：
1. 贸易冲突导致全球经济不稳定加剧
2. 各国央行被迫采取通胀性货币宽松政策
3. 法币贬值压力催生避险需求
分析师特别强调，这种"经济不稳定-政策宽松-法币贬值-比特币需求"的正向循环可能在未来12-24个月内持续强化。历史数据显示，在2018-2019年贸易战期间，比特币与黄金的90天相关性系数从0.2跃升至0.6，印证了其避险属性。
短期阵痛VS长期收益：投资者的两难抉择
Park警告称，虽然比特币可能因此获得长期价值重估，但投资者需要警惕贸易战带来的短期市场冲击：
- 全球股市可能面临10-15%的调整
- 大宗商品市场波动率或上升40%
- 新兴市场货币贬值压力加剧
该分析师2月2日的推文预测已部分应验："关税成本将通过更高通胀由各国共同承担，但贸易伙伴国将承受更重负担。这些国家将被迫寻找应对增长疲软的非常规手段。"这暗示各国可能考虑将比特币纳入外汇储备等创新方案。
对投资者的关键影响：
1. 需重新评估投资组合中的避险资产配置比例
2. 关注比特币与传统金融市场的相关性变化
3. 短期波动可能提供中长期布局机会
4. 需密切跟踪各国央行政策转向信号
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