安联首席经济学家：预计美联储将在2025年降息一次
2025-04-02 18:43:40
安联首席顾问埃尔埃利安重磅预测：2024年美联储仅降息一次，与市场预期严重背离
全球金融市场正密切关注美联储货币政策动向。安联集团首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔埃利安（Mohamed El-Erian）最新发表惊人预测，认为美联储在2024年可能只会实施一次降息，这与当前市场普遍预期形成强烈反差。
市场预期与美联储点阵图的分歧：
目前市场已完全定价2025年至少两次降息的预期，甚至有分析师预测可能出现第三次降息。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME) FedWatch工具显示，交易员预计今年累计降息幅度约70个基点，7月份首次降息25个基点的概率高达85%。
美联储官方立场：
相比之下，美联储6月最新发布的点阵图显示，多数官员预计2024年仅降息两次。埃尔埃利安尖锐指出，美联储决策层"本质上是鸽派"，并对其政策前瞻性提出质疑。
经济数据与政策风险：
这位知名经济学家特别警告称，美联储可能正在忽视关键经济指标疲软的信号。他更批评美联储在尚未充分评估关税政策细节及其全球连锁反应的情况下，就草率地将新关税定性为"暂时性"措施。
对投资者的潜在影响：
1. 市场波动风险加剧 - 预期差可能引发股债市场剧烈震荡
2. 资产配置挑战 - 需重新评估利率敏感型资产估值
3. 外汇市场影响 - 美元走势可能出现超预期波动
4. 避险需求上升 - 黄金等传统避险资产或受益
5. 行业分化加剧 - 金融、地产板块将面临重新定价
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