高盛上调美国经济衰退概率和关税税率预期
2025-03-30 23:36:41
高盛重磅预警：2025年美国关税风暴来袭，经济衰退风险激增35%
全球顶级投行高盛在今日凌晨发布的最新研报中发出重磅警告，大幅上调美国2025年关税预期至15%，较此前10%的基准预测飙升50%。这一惊人调整直接指向特朗普政府可能于4月2日推出的"全面对等关税"政策，该政策或将向所有美国贸易伙伴征收平均15%的惩罚性关税。
核心经济指标全面恶化：
• 通胀预警：核心PCE通胀预期上调0.5%至3.5%
• GDP增长：Q4增速预期下调0.5%至1.0%
• 就业市场：失业率恐攀升至4.5%
• 衰退概率：12个月内风险飙升至35%
三重冲击波正在形成：
1. 贸易战升级：新关税政策将使实际关税影响增加9个百分点
2. 成本推动型通胀：进口商品价格飙升将传导至消费端
3. 信心危机：消费者和企业情绪持续恶化形成负反馈循环
政策转向危险信号：
研报特别警示，决策层可能正转向"短期阵痛换长期目标"的危险策略，叠加实际收入增长放缓，美国经济正进入2008年以来最脆弱阶段。
【投资者影响批注】
• 防御性资产配置需求激增（黄金、国债）
• 出口依赖型股票估值承压
• 跨国企业盈利预期面临下调
• 美联储政策路径不确定性加大
• 新兴市场资本外流风险上升
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