IMF发言人：正评估特朗普关税计划影响，认为美国不会出现经济衰退
2025-03-28 00:48:38
国际货币基金组织（IMF）评估特朗普关税政策影响：汽车关税或引发连锁反应
国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人朱莉·科扎克（Julie Kozack）在周四的例行新闻发布会上表示，该组织正在密切评估美国前总统特朗普提出的关税计划（包括最新25%汽车关税）对全球经济的潜在影响。值得注意的是，IMF的基线预测模型显示，美国经济短期内不会出现衰退迹象。
科扎克特别强调，若美国对加拿大和墨西哥商品征收的关税政策长期持续，将对这些北美贸易伙伴的经济前景造成"重大不利影响"。不过出于政策敏感性考量，发言人未透露具体的评估数据细节。
IMF证实其研究团队正在全面测算特朗普关税方案（涵盖钢铁、铝及汽车等关键领域）对欧盟、亚洲等主要经济体的传导效应。分析人士指出，汽车关税作为特朗普贸易政策的新变量，可能重塑全球供应链格局。
对投资者的影响提示：
1. 关税政策不确定性或加剧外汇市场波动，建议关注加元、墨西哥比索汇率风险
2. 汽车关税直接影响跨国车企利润率，需重新评估整车及零部件板块投资组合
3. IMF的"无衰退"预判可能支撑美元资产短期表现，但长期贸易冲突仍是隐忧
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