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分析人士:美国汽车关税降低了日本央行5月加息的可能性

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2025-03-27 06:34:50

日本央行5月加息预期骤降!特朗普汽车关税冲击波引发连锁反应



最新市场分析显示,美国总统特朗普突然宣布的25%汽车进口关税政策,正在对日本货币政策走向产生重大影响。据日本央行观察人士透露,这一贸易保护措施已使日本央行在5月政策会议上加息的可能性大幅降低。



三大关键影响解读:

1. 政策制定复杂性增加:伊藤忠研究所首席经济学家Atsushi Takeda指出,"5月加息的可能性显著下降,日本央行需要全面评估关税对经济各个层面的影响,这一评估过程难以在5月会议前完成。"

2. 核心产业承压:作为日本经济支柱的汽车行业将首当其冲,25%的高关税可能导致出口下滑、利润缩减,进而通过产业链传导影响整体经济表现。

3. 利率预期下调:三井住友信托资管高级策略师Katsutoshi Inadome警告称,"美国汽车关税政策不利于日本央行提前收紧货币政策,长期利率可能跌破1.5%的关键水平。"



对投资者的潜在影响:

- 日元汇率可能面临下行压力

- 日本出口类股票估值或将调整

- 债券市场收益率曲线可能进一步平坦化

- 需要重新评估日本资产配置策略



(消息来源:金十数据)

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