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Matrixport:比特币与纳指相关性触及极端水平,或将迎来走势分化

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2025-03-25 09:04:11

比特币ETF与纳斯达克相关性逼近70%历史高位 短期联动性或面临分化



3月25日,Matrixport最新发布的每日图表分析显示,比特币ETF(IBIT)与纳斯达克指数的30日实际相关性已接近70%的关键水平。这一数值在比特币历史上仅出现过两次,凸显出当前数字资产与传统风险资产正受到相同宏观经济因素的显著驱动。



市场分析师指出,这种异常高相关性主要源于两大因素:


1. 一季度财报季前市场对科技企业盈利预期的集体重估

2. 全球关税政策不确定性引发的系统性风险担忧



受此影响,比特币价格走势近期与美股科技板块(尤其是纳斯达克成分股)呈现出高度同步性。但值得警惕的是,历史数据表明,当相关性达到如此高位时,往往意味着比特币即将进入与传统市场走势分化的新阶段。



对投资者的潜在影响:

1. 短期需警惕市场波动传导效应

2. 分散配置可降低相关性风险

3. 长期持有者应关注基本面支撑

4. 交易型投资者可把握可能的走势分化机会

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