Data scientist: Crypto prediction marketplace Polymarket predicts world events with up to 90% accuracy

Data scientist Alex McCullough's research shows that prediction market Polymarket is 90% accurate at predicting events that occur one month later and 94% accurate four hours before the event.
McCullough analyzed historical data from Polymarket and found that the platform slightly but consistently overestimated the probability of an event occurring in most probability ranges, possibly influenced by factors such as herd psychology, low liquidity, and participants' preference for risky bets.