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数据科学家:加密预测市场Polymarket预测世界事件的准确率高达90%

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2025-03-21 05:32:59

根据数据科学家 Alex McCullough 的最新研究显示,去中心化预测平台 Polymarket 在事件预测方面展现出惊人的准确性。研究数据表明,该平台在预测一个月后发生的事件时准确率高达 90%,而在事件发生前四小时,预测准确率更是提升至 94%。



McCullough 通过深入分析 Polymarket 的历史交易数据,采用科学的数据清洗方法,剔除了极端概率值后发现:该平台在大多数概率范围内(20%-80%)存在轻微但持续的高估现象,平均高估幅度约为 3-5个百分点。这种偏差可能源于多个因素的综合影响,包括参与者的从众心理、市场流动性不足、以及部分用户倾向于高风险投注策略等。



对投资者的影响:

1. 高准确率表明Polymarket可作为可靠的市场情绪指标

2. 持续高估现象提醒投资者需谨慎评估市场定价

3. 流动性风险可能影响投资决策的执行效率

4. 从众心理可能导致市场出现短期价格扭曲

5. 高风险偏好者的存在可能增加市场波动性

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