美联储议息前瞻：鲍威尔仅能有限安抚市场，威胁主要来自白宫
2025-03-17 00:09:22
美联储主席鲍威尔本周面临重大挑战：在周四凌晨的利率决议上，他需要向投资者传达双重信息 - 既要强调美国经济基础的稳固性，又要表明政策制定者已做好随时干预的准备。
鲍威尔强调美国经济韧性的同时，正值特朗普政府迅速升级贸易战，引发市场不安情绪，导致美股在过去一个月大幅下挫。随着对经济前景的担忧加剧，消费者信心指数持续下降，债券收益率也呈现下行趋势。
瑞穗证券美国宏观策略主管多米尼克•康斯坦姆指出："鲍威尔需要发出明确信号，表明美联储正在密切关注股市动态。政策制定者不能忽视近期市场的剧烈波动。"
经济学家普遍预测美联储今年将进行两次降息。然而，一些投资者警告称，如果美联储继续维持2025年仅降息两次的预期，鲍威尔更有必要强调，一旦劳动力市场出现恶化迹象，美联储将随时调整借贷成本。
马尔伯勒投资管理公司投资组合经理詹姆斯•埃塞表示："美联储的政策调整可能对市场产生边际影响，但显然无法完全安抚市场情绪，因为当前市场波动主要源于白宫的政策不确定性。"
值得注意的是，特朗普政府除了不断升级和调整对贸易伙伴的关税威胁外，并未采取有效措施来缓解经济衰退风险。
对投资者的影响：
1. 市场波动性可能持续增加
2. 投资决策需更加谨慎
3. 债券市场可能继续受到追捧
4. 需密切关注美联储政策走向
5. 贸易政策不确定性将持续影响投资信心
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