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【澳洲联储利率决议及发布会重点一览——市场降息预期过于乐观】利率决议:1. 利率:降息25个基...

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2025-02-18 05:22:30
【澳洲联储利率决议及发布会重点一览——市场降息预期过于乐观】
利率决议:
1. 利率:降息25个基点至4.10%,货币政策将持续保持紧缩。委员会对进一步政策宽松的前景保持谨慎态度,目前利率高于中性水平。基于技术假设的预测显示,现金利率预计在2025年6月为4.0%,2025年12月为3.6%,2026年6月为3.4%。
2. 通胀:有迹象表明,通胀回落可能比预期更快发生。下调通胀和失业率预期,预计家庭消费下降但公共需求上升。
3. 经济:预测2025年6月GDP增长2.0%,2026年6月增长2.3%,2027年6月增长2.2%。
4. 劳动力:劳动力市场仍然紧张,但其他领域可能存在比想象中更多的闲置产能。预计2025年6月失业率为4.2%,2026年6月失业率为4.2%,2027年6月失业率为4.2%。
5. 关税影响:美国经济政策对今年及明年的全球经济前景构成实质性风险。美国关税可能导致金融状况明显收紧的风险。
发布会:
1. 利率:降息并非确定之举,委员会内部存在相左意见,最终一致通过。利率决策并不意味着未来会有进一步的降息。市场对未来降息四次的定价过于乐观。
2. 通胀:尚无法宣告在通胀问题上取得胜利,委员会对通胀上行风险保持高度警惕。
3. 经济:看到经济供给方面出现一些复苏将是有益的。关税威胁难以预测,将对经济活动产生负面影响。
4. 劳动力:就业市场的强劲程度令人感到意外。
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