Wells Fargo sees continued trade policy risks and boosts dollar

Aroop Chatterjee, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo, wrote in a research note on Wednesday that the rise in trade policy uncertainty looks set to continue, reducing risk appetite, increasing foreign exchange risk premiums and pushing up the dollar. Dollar gains are likely to be concentrated against emerging market currencies and cyclical G-10 currencies. If near-term growth risks prove to be more pronounced, currencies sensitive to falling U.S. Treasury yields could rise, with "the yen leading the way." A stagflationary scenario should lead to a broader rise in the dollar, with U.S. interest rates rising along with negative risk appetite.