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华尔街:预测2年期美债收益率明年将下降50个基点

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2024-12-24 03:05:11
尽管当选总统特朗普的贸易和税收政策对债券市场的威胁迫在眉睫,但华尔街仍从美联储那里得到启示,预测2025年美国短期国债收益率将下降。策略师们的预测大多一致,认为对美联储利率政策更为敏感的2年期国债收益率将下降。他们认为,从现在起12个月后,收益率将从目前的水平下降至少50个基点。
12位策略师的预测中值是,2年期美债收益率将在一年后下降约50个基点,至3.75%。对于较长期的10年期美债,策略师们认为,上周五的收益率约为4.52%,到2025年底将达到4.25%,比当前水平低约25个基点。
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